“Only together can we continue to preserve our ideal of European society in future for the good of all European Union citizens”. This is the key passage of the Berlin Declaration, countersigned by all 27 EU members in March 2007, in the occasion of the 50th Anniversary of the Treaty of Rome, which established the European Community. The quotation underlines the fact that alone single states cannot face the challenges of globalization and secure the combination of economic success and social responsibility that we have all come to look at as the European policy model.
A simple piece of evidence should be enough to show why: at present rates of growth, not one of the four major European countries (Germany, France, United Kingdom and Italy) will be part of the G7 in thirty years, replaced by India, Brazil, Russia and Mexico. And current demographic and energy trends will undermine overall social security in Europe, if the 27 member states fail to form a common front and wield significant power when bargaining with major world players.
Facing such scenario, European leaders have committed themselves to find a solution to institutional reform before the European elections of 2009. Time is thus running short, and the positions of certain countries such as Poland, the Czech Republic, and also Britain are not making the task any easier. An Intergovernmental Conference must start before October 2007, if we are to make sure that all countries ratify the new Treaty by June 2009. Thus the European Council that will close the German semester at the presidency of the EU must find a strong political agreement over the whole process.
Such an agreement can only be based on a significant reworking of the text of the proposed Constitutional Treaty approved, by not ratified, by all member states. But such a compromise lacks a clear political soul. Even if we were to a have a President of the European Council and a full-fledged European Foreign Minister, what would be overall political direction of the European Union on issues such as relations with the US, the role for NATO, migration policy, and energy dealings with Russia? These are the key issues for Europe’s future, but serious political debate is still wanting.
by Carlo Altomonte,
Assistant Professor of European Macroeconomics, Università Bocconi