The Olympics will open on 08.08.08 at 8h 8' 8". Eight is hailed as a lucky number among the Chinese. But luck notwithstanding, China's Olympic Games remain a tough issue to deal with. There are aspects of domestic policy and international relations, as well as economic, environmental, social and media issues, and of course international competition in sports. Whatever happens in China takes on huge proportions.
The history of the Olympic Games is replete with examples when the host country sought the seal of international acknowledgment for its rising power: the 1936 Games in Berlin spring to mind, but in fact the Games of 1960 in Rome, of 1964 in Tokyo, and of 1988 in Seoul were also instances of a newly found international standing. For China, it marks the end of two centuries of relative decline and a newfound centrality: the country feels like it's the Middle Kingdom back again.
For a nation so attentive about its international reputation: the most pressing issue is to project a harmonious and efficient image abroad, in other words, the Chinese absolutely want to avoid losing face before the world. Everything possible has been done to ensure it will be so, from making significant and durable improvements, to superficial changes in the country's façade that need only to last a couple of weeks. Among the former there's the overhaul of China's infrastructure: first-class transportation networks, aqueducts, sporting arenas. Among the latter, the abatement of air pollution in Beijing (by shutting down factories and limiting traffic) or ensuring fair weather at opening and closing ceremonies (by seeding clouds with chemical compounds): if it rains, meteorologists won't be the only ones to be blamed.
The political risks for China's rulers are significant, the Olympics being an ideal stage for political protests. The government is ready for any potential disturbance: the iron fist in the velvet glove. All forms of criticism and dissent are read as grave disrespect for the country, and a sign of political failure on the part of the authorities. In fact, Steven Spielberg's renouncement to organize the opening ceremony, because of China's policy toward Tibet, has been interpreted as a hostile gesture toward the whole Chinese population.
On the economic plane, the Olympics have been an additional propeller for the 30-year old incessant rapid growth of the Chinese economy. Public and private investment has strengthened the demand for goods and services over the last few years. Also consumption is set to rise: more than 3 million (Chinese and foreign) tourists are expected to visit the country. The 2007 record of 55 million arrivals will be broken once again. Many multinational corporations and global brands have placed huge investments on the Games: media coverage will be global, and only few hermits will be able to ignore its din. This is the reason why the West has been quick to dismiss unease about the human rights subject and opposes protests and boycotts in this regard. The risk of seeing their logo linked to media images of state repression and violence, is giving nightmares to many corporate managers for the adverse consequences on Western consumers' perceptions this would have. The Olympic Games are a Western icon, linked to fundamental values in our culture. China has fully absorbed the image of the Games, but only to a lesser degree is trying to adopt the Western values that lie behind them.
What after the Olympics? The experts are divided, but the most probable scenario predicts no major economic or political changes occurring in the near future: maybe a minor growth slowdown, which is in fact favored by the government, worried the economy is overheating. Also, investment in Olympic facilities is just a fraction of the total, and domestic consumption will increase its role in sustaining national income. More worrisome are the rising prices of oil and food crops (themselves pushed by Chinese fast growth).
by Carlo Filippini ,
Full Professor of Economics, and Director of ISESAO,
Institute of Social and Economic Studies on East Asia, Bocconi University